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I’ve released my preseason rankings via my¬†college football team rating model, the PSR (Predicted Success Rating). PSR essentially measures teams’ performance in the areas most highly correlated with winning percentage, thus judging them based on how well they do the things that win football games. This includes efficient scoring, a high rate of successful plays (scoring or picking up a first down), positive drive outcomes, winning field position, among other things. The ratings are designed such that a 100 is an average FBS team in any given category.

You can view the rankings for all of FBS here, and check back as I update them through the season, but below are the preseason rankings for the Big 12. My model sees the Big 12 improving overall from last year, specifically forecasting a stronger middle of the conference.

BL Analytics Preseason Rankings

NR Team Off PSR Def PSR Overall PSR 2014 Diff
12 Baylor 109.48 123.01 122.76 7.81
15 TCU 124.41 119.04 121.15 -2.14
19 Oklahoma 109.90 111.93 117.54 6.25
30 K-State 104.07 113.52 112.25 -0.80
38 Texas 108.61 100.90 109.20 10.89
39 OK State 108.23 100.40 108.95 10.82
66 WVU 89.47 108.83 100.57 -0.40
72 Texas Tech 106.88 85.22 98.48 12.45
104 Iowa St 94.13 84.43 84.83 -3.03
122 Kansas 71.62 78.29 74.07 -12.97

 

Iowa State and Kansas are expected to stay down this year, with Texas Tech still near the bottom but likely making some strides from 2014. West Virginia is expected to be around average, while Oklahoma State and Texas should move up from the average range, closer to the top 25. K-State is expected to fall slightly, given the amount of talent they lose, while Oklahoma looks to get moderately better without becoming dominant. My model shows TCU dropping off, but I think their outlier 4-8 season in 2013 and drop in recruiting in 2014 are over-represented in that prediction. My honest opinion is that TCU will be a top 10 team again in 2015, while Baylor should hover in that range as well.

 

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