We ran out of time last week, and missed getting this post out. Our apologies, we promise to be better! However, if you caught our LGG Live week 9 preview show, you got our picks anyway.
We seem to be figuring this thing out as over the last two weeks I’ve gone 7-2 against the spread in the Big 12. A couple of winning weeks has me fired up, and I’m not holding back on my takes this week. Knock on wood, that streak continues into week 10!
Also, be sure to check out week 10’s LGG Live show for more on this week’s matchups!
14 Oklahoma at Iowa State
Kickoff: Thur, 6:30pm CT
Betting Line: OU -20.5
For many the Sooners are the team to beat in the Big 12. After all, they are the only team still unbeaten in conference play. However, they are far from unbeatable.
Oklahoma is just 3-5 against the spread, which basically means they haven’t met expectations more than they have met them. Mostly, that’s on the defense. Well, it would be on the defense if they actually showed up to take the blame.
The Sooner’s pass defense is trash. That’s harsh, but there is no other way to put it. They are last in the Big 12 and rank 126 out of 128 FBS teams. Powerhouse Charlotte has a higher ranked pass defense, and anytime you can compare Charlotte to Oklahoma, it’s a dark day in Norman.
The good news is, as bad as Oklahoma’s defense is, the offense is better. Baker Mayfield, Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon and Dede Westbrook is a combination no one else in the conference can match. There’s just one problem, Perine is banged up and Mixon is a hot head, and both are out against the Cyclones.
Oklahoma should have no problem dispatching of Iowa State, but traveling on a short week and missing two of your best weapons is not a recipe for success. The Sooners already have a hard enough time meeting expectations as it is. Give me Iowa State and the points.
Texas at Texas Tech
Kickoff: Sat, 11:00am CT
Betting Line: TEX -3.5
Who is Texas? Are they the team that has gone 5-7 in back-to-back seasons and has already dropped four this season? Or, are they the team that is 4-0 against their last four top 12 opponents and the team that ran over Baylor?
My guess is the former.
If they can keep D’Onta Foreman and Shane Buechele healthy, they are capable of beating anyone, but the defense isn’t doing them any favors, and Charlie Strong’s seat isn’t going to get any cooler.
The Horns in this one is a bold choice for Vegas. Texas is 0-4 on the road this season, and Lubbock isn’t an easy place to play.
This has been a season of ‘what ifs’ for the Red Raiders, but they found some confidence last week with a big win over TCU. Tech is also 6-2 against the spread this season and 4-1 against the spread at home.
Patrick Mahomes is getting healthier by the week, and his o-line will do everything they can to make sure that continues. The Red Raiders didn’t need any extra motivation to get up for their in-state rival, but Texas DE Breckyn Hager had to open his mouth. Give me Texas Tech.
TCU at 17 Baylor
Kickoff: Sat, 2:30pm CT
Betting Line: BAY -8
The Rivivalry has been one of the best games in college football since TCU joined the Big 12. The Horned Frogs are struggling, but they’ll give Baylor their best game.
Controversy continues to swirl in Waco, but winning has been a welcomed escape for the trouble Baylor squad, coaches, and their fans. However, that ended last week. The Bears return home after falling to a struggling Texas team for the second year in a row.
The Bears have been tested twice this season. One they lost, the other they should have. Furthermore, they are just 2-5 against the spread. They got fat and happy feasting on a buffet of cupcakes, but for the rest of the season, it’s time to pay the tab.
Texas and Oklahoma State found success by grinding the Bears down and testing their depth, and Baylor can expect that from here on out against everyone they face.
Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs, TCU has their own issues. One of the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, they have looked anything but. The defense has struggled, and Kenny Hill has been, well… he got benched against Texas Tech. The same Texas Tech that routinely makes sub par QB’s look like Heisman candidates. That pretty much says everything, doesn’t it?
Ultimately, Baylor should get the win, but this game isn’t going to be the fireworks show it has been in the past. Bears win, but TCU covers. Take the Horned Frogs in a low scoring game, by Big 12 standards anyway.
18 OK State at K-State
Kickoff: Sat, 2:30pm CT
Betting Line: KSU -2.5
Can everyone make up their mind about Oklahoma State already? They barely crack the AP Poll, while the CFB Playoff has them a solid ranked team at 18, and Vegas has them as the underdog to unranked Kansas State. What?
The Pokes are better than the Wildcats on both sides of the ball. Sure, it will be an ugly, gritty game like every game is against K-State, but the Wildcat defense (which was supposed to be the strength of this team) isn’t all that good.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s defense is playing like they’re on offense, and when they take the ball back, look out! They will make things happen.
It’s simple, this is an average team with an average quarterback going up against an above average team with a future NFL quarterback. In Manhattan or not, it’s a game the Pokes should win. Give me OSU.
Kansas at 20 West Virginia
Kickoff: Sat, 6:00pm CT
Betting Line: WVU -34.5
The Jayhawks hung with Oklahoma for about five minutes last Saturday, and the Sooners covered the 40.5 point spread. This week they face a more complete team in West Virginia and the spread is only 34.5. I think you can see where this is going.
I don’t want to harp on the Jayhawks too much, because where’s the fun in beating on a dead horse? Plus, the Kansas defense, especially the d-line, is respectable. The defense has kept them in games the Jayhawks really had no business being in, but that has been in Lawrence, and this game is in Morgantown. Oops.
Kansas has played four road games, and they lost all four by the following: 36, 36, 42, and last week by 53. So, for those that haven’t already done the math, the Jayhawks haven’t covered 34.5 points away from home, yet.
Vegas must not think much of West Virginia, but we do. Mostly because efficiency stats say the Mountaineers are a top 10-15 team and we’ll continue to beat that drum until proven otherwise. Give me WVU and I’ll give the points.