If you would when I made my picks last week that two of them would have missed, I wouldn’t have thought that the two bad picks were picking Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to cover. It was a weird week in football, and I nearly went 1-3, as Kansas kept their game against West Virginia closer than expected.
LAST WEEK: 2-2
OVERALL RECORD: 11-13-1
Moving forward, the close games last week just make the conference that much harder to predict.
There are only two games to pick on this week — well three; Texas defeated Iowa State last night — so it’s going to be hard to make up much ground.
Disclaimer: Before we get started, and I cannot stress this enough, take these picks at your own risk. I don’t take the easy way out with over and unders. All picks are against the spread. That said, I am probably wrong. I could say that you would be better off taking the opposite side of these picks, but I’d probably be wrong about that too.
Baylor (0-4) at Kansas State (2-1)
SAT, SEP 29, 2:30 PM CT
LINE: KSU -14.5
Baylor looked like a different team against Oklahoma than the squad that lost to Liberty, UTSA and Duke, but the result was the same. There’s a feeling across college football that the Bears have turned the corner under Matt Rhule. On the flip side the Wildcats are coming off loss to Vanderbilt where the Wildcats didn’t look anything like the contender for the Big 12 that we thought they may be. So, taking Baylor in this one feels like buying high and selling low. While it was a spirited performance against the Sooners, I’m not convinced the Bears can bounce back and do it again.
I don’t like the line at just over two scores, but if there’s value created based on each of their last performances, it will be on K-State’s side. I’m going to pick the Wildcats in this, but I don’t feel great about it. I would look to buy it down to 14 if you can.
The Pick: Kansas State -14.5
15 Oklahoma State (3-1) at Texas Tech (3-0)
SAT, SEP 29, 7:00 PM CT
LINE: OSU -10
Night game in Lubbock! This is going to be fun. The Horned Frogs brought the Cowboy’s prolific offense to a screeching halt last week, but the Red Raiders will have their work cut out for them in order to do the same. The Cowboys, with a weakened offensive line, will have to be watchful of Tech linebacker Dakota Allen lurking in the back field, but I’m expecting a shootout in this one. The last time the Pokes played in Lubbock they left victors in a 70-53 affair.
Oklahoma State has won the last eight meetings against Texas Tech, and while that streak has to end at some point, I just don’t see OSU losing back-to-back games, and the Red Raiders aren’t exactly equipped to take advantage of the same things TCU did last week. The Cowboy’s defense was on the field an extraordinary amount of time last week in a game where it was 115+ degrees on the field. This game is going to be in the 60s, and I’m not sure Tech could milk clock if they tried.
I like OSU to win in a shootout with an extra score or two to put it away late and cover the spread.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -10