Improbable may be an understatement in describing a situation where Texas Tech wins the Big 12 this season. Oklahoma seems to have a noticeable advantage over the rest of the conference. Texas is the favorite to challenge the Sooners. Most expect Iowa State and TCU to play dark horse. Texas Tech is pretty far down the list on potential conference winners. Even in our best-case scenario for the Red Raiders, a 5-4 conference record would be a stretch.
So, how are we going to start with a team with a 5-4 ceiling and end with them on top of the Big 12? It all starts with the bookends of the conference. Tech’s best chance to pull off the shock of the century rides on OU falling back towards the rest of the pack. As well as Les Miles pulling off a miracle of his own by turning Kansas into a competitive program.
Is it probable? No, not at all. Is it possible. Well, technically, yes. Texas Tech needs the Big 12 to do what the Big 12 does best. Beat up on itself. However, it would need to be on a whole new level.
The Red Raiders aren’t going to sweep the conference, let alone win the conference outright. However, there may be a minuscule chance of a tie that lands Tech with their first-ever Big 12 championship.
By now, many of you may have figured out where I am going with this and are probably thinking “this guy can’t be serious”, or “there is no possible way”. Well, I am serious, and history might just be on my side.
It Has Happened Before
Twenty-five years ago, in a familiar conference, Texas Tech was crowned co-champions of the Southwest Conference… along with Texas, TCU, Baylor, and Rice. After finishing 6-0-1, Texas A&M was ruled ineligible for the conference title by the NCAA, which left a five-way tie at 4-3 to claim the title.
The Very Specific And Unlikely Scenario
So, here it is. There is a statistical possibility, without Oklahoma being ruled ineligible, that Texas Tech could end the regular season at 5-4 in conference play and win the Big 12. It is in a five-way tie.
The results below would leave half the conference tied for the regular season championship at 5-4, and the second half tied for last with a record of 4-5. Yes, that means Kansas wins four conference games.
In the scenario laid out above, per Big 12 tiebreaker procedures, Texas Tech would lead the conference. Of course, that would only put them into the Big 12 Championship Game, and they would have to win that to win the Big 12 Title.
The chances of the exact results above happening are approximately one in a trillion. But in the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas “So you’re telling me there’s a chance”.