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2019 Season

Big 12 Betting Lines & Picks For Week 5

It’s time for some week 5 picks! And at 17-10-2, I’m not doing so bad.

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A man makes bets in vegas during a viewing party - Getty Images - Ethan Miller
Getty Images - Ethan Miller

After starting the season red hot, the last couple of weeks haven’t gone quite as well.

Last Week: 3-3
Big 12 Record: 13-10-2
Non-Big 12 Record: 4-0

I went 3-3 last week after splitting a couple of razor-thin margins. I was on the losing side of West Virginia’s half-point cover, but I got lucky by taking Oklahoma State when the line was at +7. That line ended up dropping to +5.5 when we did the Ten12 Podcast picks, which put me on the wrong side of it by half a point as Texas won by six. I have it in writing though, so I’m going to take the win here.

If you haven’t been following along on the Ten12 Podcast, Phillip and I have been making picks each week. We also pick on one non-Big 12 game of our choice, which I’m no including my pick here as well.

Texas Tech at #6 Oklahoma

  • Line: OKLA -27
  • Over/Under: 70.5

This game will not be lacking in fire power. Unfortunately, for the Red Raiders, most of that fire power is on the Sooners side. Texas Tech’s offense disappeared last week, and now Alan Bowman is sidelined. It’s a big number, but the Sooners are just too much and cover in a rough welcome to the Big 12 for coach Matt Wells.
Pick: OKLA -27

Kansas at TCU

  • Line: TCU -16
  • Over/Under: 49

If you listened to this week’s picks on the Ten12 Podcast, then you know I took TCU. However, as I type this, I’m wondering if I regret that pick. This one is tough. The trio of Carter Stanley, Pooka Williams and Khalil Herbert are no joke. Combined with receiver Andrew Parchment, and the Jayhawks have a real offense.

TCU on the other hand has six quarterbacks, but they don’t have one. Max Duggan has taken over the job, but he’s completing just 50.6 percent of his passes.

I’m going to stick with my pick, but I don’t feel good about it. The Horned Frogs defense is the difference in this one, and TCU gets a 17-point win…maybe.
The Pick: TCU -16

Iowa State at Baylor

  • Line: ISU -3
  • Over/Under: 55

Have the Cyclones even made it to Waco yet? Because I am pretty sure they are still scoring on UL-Monroe. Iowa State was impressive last week, and they found their mojo none too soon entering Big 12 play. Baylor’s season has been the opposite. They looked great against lesser opponents in the first two weeks, but nearly let the game slip away last week.

Charlie Brewer vs Brock Purdy, this is going to be a fun one. It’s a tough call, and I probably would not put money on it, but I’m going to bet on Iowa State being the team we thought they were heading into the season.
The Pick: ISU -3

#24 Kansas State at Oklahoma State

  • Line: OKST -4.5
  • Over/Under: 60.5

The first three Big 12 matchups have been tough to pick and this one is not any different. Kansas State has been impressive through three weeks which include a big win over Mississippi State on the road. We know they want to run the ball. Eight different players have at least 8 carries through three games. However, Skylar Thompson is quietly having a decent season as well by completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with four touchdowns to zero interceptions.

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, also looked impressive through their first three weeks before facing Texas in Austin. The Pokes are coming off a loss that gave the rest of the conference a road map on how to beat them. Cover Tylan Wallace over the top and make them force feed Chuba Hubbard the ball. Hubbard is a dynamic back, but they have to be concerned with the number of touches he is getting.

With all that said, I like the Cowboys to make some adjustments after last week, and I think they loosen the reins on Spencer Sanders a bit and just let him play. Sanders is a difference maker.
The Pick: OKST -4.5

Bonus Non-Big 12 Pick: UL-Lafayette at Georgia Southern

  • Line: ULL -3.5
  • Over/Under: 55

The Ragin’ Cajuns did me right last week as the underdog. I said I liked them to get the outright win against Ohio, and they didn’t fail me. So in return, I’m just going to take the Cajuns again this week. They aren’t the dog anymore, but they are still the better team. Vegas keeps undervaluing the Cajuns, and I think they have again this week.
The Pick: ULL -3.5

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