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2019 Season

Big 12 Bowl Outlook

After a wild weekend in the Big 12, where can we expect the teams to play this postseason?

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Chaos reigned in the Big 12 this weekend which left the conference on the outside looking in heading down the stretch to the College Football Playoffs. With five weeks remaining in the regular season, the postseason picture is coming into focus. The conference title, however, is still up for grabs.

Below we break down each Big 12 team, their remaining schedule, their chance to make a bowl game (based off ESPN FPI), and what bowl game each team might end up in.

Baylor Bears

Current Record – Overall 8-0, Conference 5-0
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – @ TCU (54.2%), OU (27.6%), UT (62.5%), @ KU (87.7%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 100%
Bowl Projection – Valero Alamo Bowl

Baylor is the surprise of the conference this year, still undefeated and benefitting from a bye during the implosion in the Big 12. Their schedule heats up down the stretch with TCU, OU, and UT in three straight games. The Horned Frogs always play Baylor tough and OU and UT are both looking to bounce back from tough losses to meet in the championship once again.

Baylor has been great this season, pulling out close games and making plays when it matters, but I still need convincing they belong in the same conversation as OU. I think Baylor drops at least two of the next five which would still result in an impressive 10-2 for Matt Rhule.

Oklahoma Sooners

Current Record – Overall 7-1, Conference 4-1
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – ISU (81.7%), @ BU (72.4%), TCU (88.7%), @ OKST (79.2%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 100%
Bowl Projection – Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma seemed unbeatable before allowing 24 straight points to Kansas State in the third and fourth quarters last week. The Sooners will likely be favored in the remainder of their games, including the Big 12 championship. The loss to K State is a big one and, barring more major upsets across college football, likely has Oklahoma missing the college football playoff.

Iowa State Cyclones

Current Record – Overall 5-3, Conference 3-2
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – @ OU (18.3%), UT (68.2%), KU (94.4%), @ KSU (60.5%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 99%
Bowl Projection – Academy Sports & Outdoor Bowl

The Cyclones can make a statement over the next two weeks by knocking off OU and UT, but, unfortunately for Iowa State, those games will be played in November. Oklahoma showed they are human, but I expect a bounce-back performance against the cyclones. ISU still has conference championship hopes, but it would be a tall order for the ‘Clones.

Texas Longhorns

Current Record – Overall 5-3, Conference 3-2
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – KSU (71.6%), @ ISU (31.8%), @ BU (37.5%), TTU (79.5%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 96%
Bowl Projection – Camping World Bowl

After losing to TCU, Texas no longer controls their conference title hopes. With remaining games against ISU and Baylor, UT likely drops one of the two, knocking them out of the conference championship discussion.

Kansas State Wildcats

Current Record – Overall 5-2, Conference 2-2
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – @ KU (80.6%), @ UT (28.4%), WVU (83.6%), @ TTU (56.3%), ISU (39.5%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 99%
Bowl Projection – Autozone Liberty Bowl

The Wildcats had the biggest win of the season in the Big 12 last week and have a ton of momentum entering their final five games. This team looks like an eight win team, still having games against UT and ISU.

TCU Horned Frogs

Current Record – Overall 4-3, Conference 2-2
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – @ OKST (39.6%), BU (45.8%), @ TTU (60.8%), @ OU (11.3%), WVU (85.9%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 72%
Bowl Projection – SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Another team with a huge win last week, Duggan continues to improve and gain confidence for the Horned Frogs. TCU is still young and has three very tough games left against Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Oklahoma. However, the win against UT has set the Frogs up needing wins over just Texas Tech and West Virginia to reach the postseason this year.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Current Record – Overall 5-3, Conference 2-3
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – TCU (60.4%), KU (91%), WVU (74.1%), @ OU (20.8%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 99%
Bowl Projection – Cheez-It Bowl

OSU was the third team with a big win last week, almost guaranteeing a bowl berth and a decent chance to be an eight-win team this year. The roller coaster of last year continues, but a postseason game is in the Cowboys’ future.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current Record – Overall 3-5, Conference 1-4
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – TTU (43.7%), @ KSU (16.4%), OKST (25.9%), @ TCU (14.1%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 2%
Bowl Projection – None

The Mountaineers are in a three-team race to avoid the basement of the Big 12, helped out by Kansas’ win over Texas Tech, but unfortunately at home with a bye during a weekend where all four underdogs won. WVU will have the opportunity to avoid last place in the conference when they host Texas Tech, but bowl hopes are slim and Neal Brown will be starting offseason work early this year.

Kansas Jayhawks

Current Record – Overall 3-5, Conference 1-4
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – KSU (19.4%), @ OKST (9.0%), @ ISU (5.6%), BU (12.3%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – <1%
Bowl Projection – None

Big plays and a wild finish landed Kansas their first win over Texas Tech since 2001, unfortunately for the Jayhawks, they’re remaining schedule gets tougher and they are three games short of bowl eligibility. Kansas will build on the win, but won’t be bowling this year.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Current Record – Overall 3-5, Conference 1-4
Remaining Schedule (FPI Win %) – @ WVU (56.3%), TCU (39.2%), KSU (43.7%), @ UT (20.5%)
Chance to Make Bowl Game – 10%
Bowl Projection – None

What can we say here, Texas Tech had a favorable schedule and a bowl berth looked within reach before laying an egg in Lawrence. Out of all the three-win teams, Tech has the highest chances of still reaching the postseason according to ESPN FPI, but anyone who has watched this team would agree, the Red Raiders will not be bowling this year.

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