It’s time for picks, and it’s a big week. There are a few games that have College Football Playoff implications along with bowl eligibility implications. So let’s get into it, but first, here’s how I’m doing so far.
Big 12 Record: 26-28-3 (.482)
Non-Big 12 Record: 11-2 (.846)
Total Record: 37-30-3 (.550)
I went big on the non-Big 12 pick last week, and it cost me. The Buckeyes failed to cover the 52 points on the road as Rutgers doubled their touchdown total against the Big Ten. Still, I’m doing okay in the non-Big 12 picks, and I like another big number this week. Although, not quite as big as the 52 last week.
Picking in the Big 12 is a bit harder, because even if I don’t like the number, I have to make a pick anyway. Last week, I went 2-2-1, and honestly, going .500 when forced to pick on the games isn’t half bad.
21 Oklahoma State AT West Virginia
Betting Lines: OKST -6.5 | O/U 58.5
The Pick: OKST -6.5
Spencer Sanders is out and Dru Brown is in. Brown isn’t as athletic as Sanders, but he has a solid arm, and that’s all the Poke’s need. Really, all the Pokes need is for someone to hand the ball to Chuba Hubbard. West Virginia ranks 74th in rush defense. They give up 3.88 yards per rush and 167 yards per game. That’s going to be a problem today.
Kansas AT 22 Iowa State
Betting Lines: ISU -24.5 | O/U 58.0
The Pick: ISU -24.5
Kansas ranks 81st in pass defense, and for the Big 12, that’s actually not half bad. Still, it’s not great and Brock Purdy ranks third nationally in passing yards per game.
ESPN FPI gives Iowa State a 95.4% chance of winning. The question is, can they win by more than the number. The half-point over 24 is tough. I go back and forth on this one, but I like the Cyclones to have a big performance at home for senior day.
Texas AT 14 Baylor
Betting Lines: BAY -5.0 | O/U 59.5
The Pick: Bay -5
This is another game where both teams are coming off of close a loss, but one lost to Oklahoma while the other gifted a win to Iowa State. I think the Baylor defense is the difference here, and I’m not sure the Horns have the fight in them to stay in the game if they get down. If Baylor can come out like they did against the Sooners, then Texas can’t come back from that.
Kansas State AT Texas Tech
Betting Lines: TTU -2.5 | O/U 55.0
The Pick: KSU +2.5
I actually feel like this number is about right, and I probably would stay away from this one. Both teams are coming off losses. K-State lost to West Virginia last week, but I’m not sure that wasn’t a case of Texas beating them twice. Before the two losses, the Cats were rolling with wins over Kansas, Oklahoma and TCU.
Speaking of TCU, they knocked off the Red Raiders last week in a wild game. Texas Tech has lost four of their last five games, and I’m not sure how confident they are going into this one. They are playing for bowl eligibility though, and that’s always dangerous.
In the end, I like the Wildcats to get it done.
TCU AT 9 Oklahoma
Betting Lines: OKLA -18.0 | O/U 65.5
The Pick: OKLA -18.0
This one is a bit tough. TCU has been up and down all year, and despite the Sooner’s dominant win record, they are just 4-6 against the number. I think this number is about right, too. However, I’m forced to pick and I’m going to lean on what the Big 12 needs to happen. Oklahoma comes out and makes a statement at home.
Texas State at Appalachian State
Betting Lines: APP -28.5 | O/U 51.5
The Pick: APP State -28.5
This is another big number, but Texas State hasn’t covered a spread on the road all season. Appalachian State is in the CFB Playoff poll, and they don’t want to lose that ranking. I like them to take care of business at home and look good doing it. Also, at least this way I also get to take the Mountaineers this week, and I like them to extend their 7-3 record against the spread.