After a couple of not so great weeks, I rebounded last week in a big way by going 4-1. Hopefully, I can keep that momentum going this week.
It’s a full slate this week with five Big 12 games. Oklahoma is a heavy favorite against Kansas, while the rest of the week’s matchups are fairly tight. While there are a couple of games I would stay away from if I wasn’t being forced to pick, there are a couple of games where I think there is some value to be had. First, here’s a look at how I’m doing so far on the season.
Big 12 Record: 16-11-2
Non-Big 12 Record: 5-0
Total Record: 21-11-2 (65%)
If you haven’t been following along on the Ten12 Podcast, we also pick on one non-Big 12 game of our choice each week, which I’m now including my pick here as well. And *knocks on wood*, I’m doing pretty good there. It’s a little bit easier when you get to choose the game you want to pick a side on.
6 Oklahoma at Kansas
Betting Lines: OKLA -33, O/U 67.5
The Pick: OKLA -33
Last week, I picked the Sooners to cover the 27 points against Texas Tech. They did. This week, it’s another big number, but I’m going to go with Oklahoma. The crimson and cream simply have too much fire power for the Jayhawks to keep up with. I also expect the speed D to be effective against a struggling Kansas offense. This one feels like matchup where Vegas is afraid to put to high of a number on it, but the reality is, Oklahoma could have this covered by halftime. I’m taking the Sooners.
21 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Betting Lines: OKST -10, O/U 63
The Pick: OKST -10
I said above that I thought there were a couple of games where there was value to be found. This is one of them. Texas Texas is not the same team as they are with star quarterback Alan Bowman. They have averaged just 15 points a game the last two times out, and I have a feeling Oklahoma State is going to score a whole lot more than that. Give me the Pokes.
TCU at Iowa State
Betting Lines: ISU -3, O/U 44
The Pick: TCU +3
This is a tough call, but I find myself wondering just what has Iowa State done this year; aside from demolishing UL-Monroe? They needed triple overtime to avoid an embarrassing loss to Northern Iowa. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to avoid embarrassment against Iowa as a muffed punt sealed the game for the Hawkeyes. And then last week, The Cyclones put it together in the fourth quarter to storm back and take the lead. All they had to do was get Baylor off the field one last time, but they couldn’t do it. I need to see more from Iowa State before I’m comfortable picking them in a close game. Give me TCU.
11 Texas at West Virginia
Betting Lines: TEX -10.5, O/U 60.5
The Pick: TEX -10.5
This is another game where I think there is value to be found. The Mountaineers are 3-1, but they are untested, and struggled against a Kansas team that was just destroyed by the team we have seventh in our power rankings. Texas, on the other hand, has been tested. And despite massive injury losses, they have continued to play at a high level. They should get a bit of depth back this week in the secondary, and I expect them to simply overwhelm the Mountaineers. Give me Texas.
Baylor at Kansas State
Betting Lines: KSU -1.5, O/U 49
The Pick: BAY +1.5
I’ll be honest. I don’t know here. I have gone back and forth on this game, and it is by far my least confident pick. So, if you’re thinking of putting money down this week, I would avoid this one. I have to make a pick though, so I will. And I might as well continue the trend of taking the team on the road this week. I know, it’s a bold strategy, but it’s how it worked out. Kansas State was without star receiver Malik Knowles last week, and it showed. Knowles is still out, and without a threat to stretch the field, I like Baylor’s run defense to prevail. Give me the Bears.
Tulsa at SMU
Betting Lines: SMU -13, O/U 63.5
The Pick: SMU -13
I like this matchup, because we’ve seen both these teams. Oklahoma State defeated Tulsa with ease, while SMU upset TCU for the Iron Skillet. I like this line at under two score. The Mustangs are a legitimate top 25 team, while Tulsa simply is not very good. Oh, and we are also pretty familiar with the Mustang’s quarterback. Shane Buechele can play, so I’m taking the Mustangs.