I went 2-2 last week on the short schedule, and while not great, I’ll take it. I also got back in the win column for my non-Big 12 pick, so there is that. Overall, I’m above .500 and that’s all that matter.
Big 12 Record: 19-16-2 (54%)
Non-Big 12 Record: 6-1 (86%)
Total Record: 25-17-2 (59%)
We have a full slate of games this week, so let’s get to picking! If you haven’t been following along on the Ten12 Podcast, we also pick on one non-Big 12 game of our choice each week, which I’m now including my pick here as well.
West Virginia AT 5 Oklahoma
Betting Lines: OKLA -33.5, O/U 63
The Pick: WVU +33.5
This is a big number. It’s also a number that I am fairly confident the Sooners could have beat by the third quarter if they wanted to. However, after the Red River Showdown win last week, Oklahoma could come out a bit flat against an underwhelming opponent. Yes, the Sooners can score points in bunches, but they are just 3-3 against the spread. I’ll take West Virginia and cross my fingers.
Iowa State AT Texas Tech
Betting Lines: ISU -7, O/U 57
The Pick: TTU +7
I am surprised at this number. To me, this is more of a pick ’em since the game is in Lubbock. Jett Duffey has improved since last season, and he’s starting to figure out the offense. This offense under Matt Wells also seems more suited to him. I like the Red Raiders to keep it close.
TCU AT Kansas State
Betting Lines: TCU -3.5, O/U 44
The Pick: TCU -3.5
Is Malik Knowles back yet? Nope? Okay, well that makes this an easy pick. Until Kansas State shows that they can stretch the field without their star receiver, then defenses are going to keep disrespecting their pass game and focus on stopping the run. TCU’s defense is also pretty good at that already. Freshman quarterback Max Duggan is coming into his own and the Frogs just have more offense in this one. Give me TCU.
18 Baylor AT Oklahoma State
Betting Lines: OSU -4, O/U 68
The Pick: BAY +4
I didn’t understand this line when Oklahoma State opened up as the 2-point favorite. I was even more surprised to see the line move in the Cowboy’s favor.
The Texas and Texas Tech games have shown that the Cowboys don’t have much behind their star trio of quarterback Spencer Sanders, running back Chuba Hubbard and receiver Tylan Wallace. Their defense has also been hit or miss. Baylor has a pretty good trio of their own in quarterback Charlie Brewer, running back John lovett and receiver Denzel Mims. They also have depth behind those guys that the defense will also have to account for and that the difference in this one.
The Cowboys are 5-1 against the spread and it’s homecoming in Stillwater, but that just means the student section will be empty by the third quarter. Give me Baylor.
Kansas AT 15 Texas
Betting Lines: TEX -21, O/U 62.5
The Pick: TEX -21
The Longhorns are looking to bounce back after the loss in the Red River Showdown, and I think they do just that against Kansas at home. Texas is 4-2 against the spread while the Jayhawks are 2-4. Kansas got an extra week to work on their new offense, but I suspect it’s going to be too little too late. The Longhorns have not forgotten 2016. No one will let them. I expect them to come out focused, and to win big.
20 Minnesota AT Rutgers
Betting Lines: MINN -28.5, O/U 47.5
The Pick: MINN -28.5
Minnesota is undefeated and averaging 35.5 points per game. They beat their last two opponents by an average of 25 points, and Rutgers is much worse than Illinois and Nebraska. Rutgers has covered the spread just one time this season. Coincidentally, that’s the number of games they have won as well.
The last time Rutgers kept a game within 28.5 points was way back in week four, when they lost to Boston College 30-16. That’s the same Boston College team that Kansas spanked 30-16
Rutgers has been held scoreless three times this season, and has scored just 7 points in their last three games combined. In fact, they have scored just two touchdowns this season against Power 5 opponents.