I”ll be honest. I was feeling pretty good about my picks last week. Unfortunately, I shouldn’t have been so confident. At 2-4, it was a bad week. The losing week also means that I have slipped down to a .500 record in the Big 12.
Big 12 Record: 20-20-2 (.500)
Non-Big 12 Record: 7-1 (.875)
Total Record: 27-21-2 (.560)
The only bright spot is the non-Big 12 bonus picks. I got another win there, but it’s a lot easier when get to pick the games you want.
I’m already behind on getting this out this week, but as a reminder, you can catch all our picks on the Ten 12 Podcast that goes up each Friday. So let’s get to it.
5 Oklahoma AT Kansas State
Betting Lines: OKLA -23.5 | O/U 58
The Pick: OKLA -23.5
I doubted the Sooner’s ability to cover last week following their win in the Red River Showdown. I won’t make that mistake again. Okay, well I might, but not this week at least. The Sooners have just too much and the defense is getting better each week. In fact, the Sooner defense ranks 30th in the country, while the Kansas State offense ranks in the 90s. Not great. Give me Oklahoma.
15 Texas AT TCU
Betting Lines: TEX -1.5 | O/U 57.5
The Pick: TEX -1.5
In a clear sign that I have no idea what is going on, TCU opened up as the favorite in this matchup. The line quickly moved in Texas’ favor, but still. I get that Texas struggled against Kansas last week and lost to Oklahoma the week before that, but what has TCU done that’s got everyone fired up?
Let’s talk about last week’s Kansas-Texas game. I said that I didn’t see what a new offensive coordinator could do for them this late in the season, but I was wrong. Texas had the misfortune of being the first one to face an offense no one had really seen. So, I wouldn’t worry about a fiesty performance by the Jayhawks. And I really wouldn’t read too much into a loss to a top-5 team.
Texas is starting to get some playmakers healthy again which will give them some depth they haven’t had all season. I think the Horns are just too much for the Frogs.
Oklahoma State AT 23 Iowa State
Betting Lines: ISU -10.5 | O/U 64.5
The Pick: ISU -10.5
This is a tough pick, but I have to go with the hot hand here. The Cyclone’s offense is getting better with each week, and do you really want to doubt Brock Purdy in October? The Cowboys have some key talent, but I question their depth. Not to mention that over the last couple of weeks, they have looked lost.
I like that quarterback Spencer Sanders wants to put the team on his back and go win the game, but he’s making redshirt freshman mistakes. You don’t want to give Purdy and this offense more extra possessions.
It’s a big number, but ultimately, I like the Cyclones to get this one by a couple of scores.
Texas Tech AT Kansas
Betting Lines: TTU -4.5 | O/U 64
The Pick: KU +4.5
This is an interesting matchup. I initially leaning towards Texas Tech when the lines came out, but as I looked back on the Texas game, I started to like Kansas. Here’s why. One, Texas Tech has lost four of their last five and confidence cannot be high. Two, we still don’t have a ton of tape to watch on the Jayhawks new offense. Three, while they lost last week, it was a game where they nearly beat a ranked team on the road. Moral Victories don’t help the win column, but it might in this case, because I have a suspicion that Kansas looks back on the game and realizes they can compete and win games in this conference.
Bonus Pick: Ohio AT Ball State
Betting Lines: BALL -2.5 | O/U 59
The Pick: BALL -2.5
I said last week that we should strongly consider taking whoever Rutgers is playing each week from here on out. That’s still true, but they are playing Liberty this week. So I went to the Group of Five and found some value.
Ball State is 5-2 against the spread while Ohio has covered the spread just one time. The Cardinals are also on a nice little win streak and put 52 on Toledo last week. I also like that while it’s a low spread at under a field goal, the Football Power Index really likes Ball State at a 67.4% chance to win the game. I also like picking the home team, give me Ball State.