Big 12 Record: 24-26-2 (.481)
Non-Big 12 Record: 11-1 (.917)
Total Record: 35-27-2 (.563)
We have a great slate this week with ESPN’s College GameDay in Waco for a top 15 matchup between the Sooners and the Bears, so let’s just get to picks!
Kansas at 22 Oklahoma State
Betting Lines: OKST -18 | O/U 66
The Pick: Kansas +18
Kansas is hard to pin down. The look like a completely new team behind new offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon. Quarterback Carter Stanley has also been impressive, all things considered, and he just might be the better quarterback on the field on Saturday.
The Cowboys are 7-2 against the spread, so it’s not wise to pick against them. However, this is a big number. The important thing to know is that Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten anyone by 18 points since week three against Tulsa. And even then, they won that game by 19.
Kansas is better than Tulsa, take the Jayhawks.
TCU at Texas Tech
Betting Lines: TCU -3.0 | O/U 55.5
The Pick: Texas Tech +3.0
The matchup statistics in this one slightly favor TCU, but when you look at home and away statistics only, they start to favor the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is also 3-0-1 against the spread at home.
For me this game comes down to Max Duggan on the road and Jett Duffey at home. TCU has struggled to protect Duggan at times, and Lubbock will not be a friendly environment for the freshman leader. I like the Red Raiders to add to their turnover margin and get the win.
19 Texas at Iowa State
Betting Lines: ISU -7.0 | O/U 65.5
The Pick: Iowa State -7.0
This might be the toughest pick of the day. I’m honestly surprised to see the Cyclones as this heavy of a favorite. What does Vegas know?
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Cyclones a 71.3 percent chance of winning this game. That’s a decided percentage. A big reason for that is because veteran Big 12 quarterback Brock Purdy is going up against a secondary that has struggled to stay healthy.
Texas is getting guys back to help their depth, but can the unit come back together in time to slow down the Iowa State offense? It’s more points than I would like to lay in this one, but I’m going to trust in Vegas. I’m taking Iowa State to cover at home.
West Virginia at 24 Kansas State
Betting Lines: KSU -14.0 | O/U 47.5
The Pick: K-State -14.0
These two teams are world’s apart in confidence, despite the Wildcat’s loss last week. Over the last four games, K-State has defeated TCU, Oklahoma and Kansas. And while Texas got them in the end, the Wildcats were competitive on the road.
Unfortunately, being competitive is not something West Virginia can also claim. They have lost their last five games and it hasn’t always been close. It’s clear that Austin Kendall is not the QB we thought he may be.
I like the Wildcats to bounce back from the loss last in a game that may be similar to their game against Kansas. K-State won that one by 28. They are 7-2 against the spread and I like them to cover the 14 this week at home.
10 Oklahoma at 13 Baylor
Betting Lines: OKLA -10.0 | O/U 67.5
The Pick: Baylor +10.0
This game is a bit weird. It’s the game of the week with ESPN’s College GameDay in attendance, but both teams are on a down swing.
If this was three weeks ago, I would pick Oklahoma to cover the 10, and it wouldn’t be a tough decision. However, it’s not three weeks ago, and we can’t ignore how the Sooners have played the last two outings.
Jalen Hurt’s decision makings has hurt Oklahoma, and last week Brock Purdy was the better quarterback on the field. This week, Charlie Brewer will be the better quarterback, and Baylor has a better overall team.
Surprisingly, neither team has performed well against the spread, either. Oklahoma is 4-5 against the number and 1-3 against the number on the road. Baylor isn’t much better against the number at 5-4, and 2-3 at home. In the end, I like Baylor to get the outright win at home, but I’ll gladly take the 10-point cushion.
Bonus Pick: 2 Ohio State at Rutgers
Betting Lines: OSU -51.5 | O/U 61.5
The Pick: OSU -51.5
This is a huge number, but last week I took Ohio State at 43.5 over Maryland on the Ten12 Podcast. Ohio State scored 73 and won by 59 to easily cover. The Buckeyes average 51 points a game, and I like them to be above average against Rutgers.
Against the Big Ten, Rutgers has scored 24 total points. That’s it. In 6 conf games, they have scored just three touchdowns total. In those games, they have given up 245 points. So for every point they score, they have 10 scored against them.
Oh, and I said I took Ohio State at -43.5 against Maryland and the Buckeyes covered, well Maryland beat Rutgers 48-7. By transitive wins, which is highly scientific, Ohio State wins 121-0.