We’ve got a lot of picks to make this week with eight Big 12 games, and the weekly non-Big 12 pick and upset, or money line, picks.
So how this works is Phillip Slavin, Daniel Alexander and myself make our picks each week on the Ten12 Podcast. My picks are below, but for Daniel’s picks, who is a professional picker, and Phillip’s picks, who is definitely not a professional, you’re going to have to listen to the podcast.
Last week I went 2-3 in Big 12 play, but I got both the non-Big 12 pick and the money line pick to save a winning week at 4-3. At 10-6 overall, I’m currently in the lead, but holding onto that lead will not be easy with the matchups this week.
Also, before we get to picks, we put out Twitter polls at the beginning of the week asking which side of the line you are on for each conference game. I will start including Twitter’s pick below along with the percentage of the vote. So, be sure to give us a follow at @the_LGG to vote in next week’s polls.
NEBRASKA AT 3 OKLAHOMA
Betting Lines: OKLA -22 | O/U 62
Twitter Pick: OKLA -22 (81.8%)
My Pick: OKLA -22
At almost 82 percent of the vote, the Sooners dominated the Twitter poll, and for good reason. Oklahoma and Nebraska were rivals at one time, but Nebraska stopped fishing in the Texas recruiting pool and decided to try their luck up North. The results have not been good, and now the Huskers get to come back to Norman in a brutal reality check of just how far they have fallen.
Now, I do expect a fight from Nebraska. They have been hearing all week that they don’t have much of a chance. So, I like them to come out with something to prove. However, while Nebraska hasn’t given up a lot of points this season, they haven’t played anyone like OU. Sometime in the third quarter, or maybe even late second quarter, the Huskers are going to blink and it’s going to be a 3-score game. That leaves plenty of time for the Sooners to get the cover.
15 VIRGINIA TECH AT WEST VIRGINIA
Betting Lines: WVU -3 | O/U 50.5
Twitter Pick: WVU -2.5 (66.5%)
My Pick: VT +3
Twitter in more confident in the Mountaineers than I am. I need to see something from quarterback Jarret Doege before I can pick West Virginia. I said at the beginning of the season that WVU will only go as far as Doege can take them, and so far, he hasn’t answered the call. And no, a solid performance against Long Island doesn’t count. Who even knew Long Island was a school that even played football before they were on the schedule?
The Virginia Tech pass rush has been impressive. That’s bad news for a QB that gets flustered under pressure. I have a feeling this will come down to whoever takes care of the ball better. The Hokies already have one decent win this year and I have a feeling they are about to make it two. Prove me wrong Mountaineers.
NEVADA AT KANSAS STATE
Betting Lines: NEV -1.5 | O/U 50.5
Twitter Pick: KSU +2.5 (69.3%)
My Pick: NEV -1.5
The good news for the Wildcats is that there is a chance Skylar Thompson returns before the end of the year. The bad news is that it will not be by Saturday. It’s just a brutal loss for Kansas State. I would love for the team to rally and go get him a win…and they might…but money on the line, I have to go with Nevada.
Speaking of quarterbacks, the one on the other side is pretty good, himself. The Wolfpack are an underrated team. While the K-State defense will give them problems — and QB Carson Strong might have to do it all himself through the air if they can’t get a ground game going — I expect Nevada to do enough to get the win.
BAYLOR AT KANSAS
Betting Lines: BU -17.5 | O/U 49.5
Twitter Pick: BU -17 (84.2%)
My Pick: BU -17.5
Somehow, Kansas looked better in their loss last week than they did in their win the week before. No one impressed me more last week than Jayhawk QB Jason Bean. He finished with 189 passing yard last week, but added another 102 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The problem is that he just doesn’t have any help. His 52 percent completion percentage wasn’t for the lack of effort. He was putting the ball where it need to be. His receivers just weren’t capitalizing on the opportunity. Bean needed to basically walk the ball down field and hand the ball off to the receiver in order to complete a pass.
I expect this game to tell us more about Baylor, and what their ceiling is this year. The defense is there, and the offense got warmed up last week against Texas Southern. I think Kansas puts up a fight early, but similar to last week, while looking better, they still fail to cover the spread. Give me Baylor.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AT TEXAS TECH
Betting Lines: TTU -21 | O/U 54
Twitter Pick: TTU -21 (56.0%)
My Pick: TTU -21
The Red Raiders got out with a win last week and that’s all that matters. The poor performance last week is bad news for FIU. Texas Tech got a wake up call that they cannot just walk onto the field and expect a win in these kind of games. I expect Tyler Shough to bounce back against a lesser opponent, and for the defense to come out more focused.
For now, I’ll just chalk up the rough outing last week to a bit of a let down week after the Houston game. Give me Texas Tech to take care of business this week and cover the 21 points.
RICE AT TEXAS
Betting Lines: TEX -25.5 | O/U 53
Twitter Pick: TEX -24.5 (60.0%)
My Pick: TEX -25.5
Texas got a taste of SEC life last week. They didn’t like it, but it was shoved down their throat anyway. Freshman QB Hudson Card looked lost at times, before being benched in favor of Casey Thompson. Thompson provided a spark to the offense, but it was too little too late. Coach Sarkisian said this week that Thompson will get the start against Rice as he appears to be the guy moving forward. We’ll see how long that lasts, though.
The good news for the Longhorns is that they get Rice this week. The Owls are just a bad football team. I’m expect a trend of bounce back performances this week, and I expect another one here. Although…the Owls were more competitive against Arkansas than the Longhorns were.
I would not bet this game, but for a picks sake, I’m already committed to Texas’ side. I just don’t feel good about it.
OKLAHOMA STATE AT BOISE STATE
Betting Lines: BSU -3.5 | O/U 57.5
Twitter Pick: OKST +4 (51.2%)
My Pick: BSU -3.5
Speaking of teams that didn’t look great last week, We have arrived at the Oklahoma State game. The Pokes have had some key skill players out, but the real problem is that the offensive line is just not good. The run game is averaging just 2.73 yards per carry. That’s good for 112th in the country.
Boise State lost their opener to UCF, but had a big bounce-back weekend last week. The Oklahoma State defense will keep them in this, but eventually there will just be too many mistakes on offense. Spencer Sanders can be turnover prone even when they aren’t playing an opponent with blue helmets, blue jerseys and blue pants on a blue field.
This one should be close, but there is a chance the Cowboys gets washed as the Broncos will be looking to make a statement against a conference that just overlooked them for the second time in five years.
14 IOWA STATE AT UNLV
Betting Lines: ISU -31 | O/U 52
Twitter Pick: ISU -30 (53.4%)
My Pick: ISU -31
Last week was a rough, but the Cyclones need to focus and realize all of their goals are still ahead of them. Win the Big 12, and you’re almost guaranteed a spot in the playoff as they seem to have a kink for quality losses.
UNLV is not a good team and Iowa State isn’t nearly as bad as you would think by looking at the final score last week. Brock Purdy didn’t play well, but Iowa State beat Iowa everywhere but the scoreboard. The Cyclone had nearly twice as many total yards.
It’s a big spread, I like the Cyclones to work out some frustrations here.
NON-BIG 12 PICK
16 COASTAL CAROLINA AT BUFFALO
Betting Lines: CCU -13.5 | O/U 57.5
My Pick: CCU -13.5
What am I missing? I mean, at this point I’m drowning in the Coastal teal and bronze Kool-Aid, and I’d probably take the Chanticleers as a three touchdown favorite, but realistically though, I see Coastal winning this by 17-21 points. So, I’ll definitely take them at 13.5.
ARIZONA STATE AT BYU
Betting Lines: ASU -4.5 | O/U 51
My Pick: BYU
Last week: The newest Big 12 member just took care of one Pac-12 member last week. Let’s make it two with a night game in Provo.
This week: The newest Big 12 member just took care of one Pac-12 member last week. Let’s make it
two three with a night game in Provo.