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2021 Season

Week 5 Picks: Look Ahead Games And A Top 25 Matchup

Week 5 is here, let’s make some picks!

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Josh Fleeks of the Baylor Bears runs for eight yards against the Oklahoma State Cowboys - Getty Images - Brian Bahr
Getty Images - Brian Bahr

These are coming out a bit late this week, but better late than never, right? That should pretty much be the motto for life with an infant. It’s a pretty good slate of games this week, so let’s get into it.

To recap, last week was another .500 week at 4-4. Overall, I am 19-15 for the season, and one game behind Phillip.

So how this works is Phillip Slavin, Daniel Alexander and myself make our picks each week on the Ten12 Podcast. My picks are below, but for Daniel’s picks, who is a professional picker, and Phillip’s picks, who is definitely not a professional, you’re going to have to listen to the podcast.


Picks are representative of where the line was at the time of posting the polls to Twitter (Monday morning), and at the time of recording the weekly Ten12 Podcast picks episode (Wednesday Night).


TEXAS AT TCU

Betting Lines: TEX -4 | O/U 65
Twitter Pick: TEX -5 (60.4%)
My Pick: TEX -4.5

TCU’s dominance in this series is a bit shocking. They have won six of the last seven, including the last two. Unfortunately for the Frogs, that changes this week. TCU has not been performing well this season. They are 0-2-1 against the number at home.

The difference will be on the lines. The Texas offensive and defensive lines were dominant last week against Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs defensive line is thin. Casey Thompson has taken the reigns of the Longhorns offense by completing 78% of his passes with 8 touchdowns. If the Frogs cannot get any pressure, he will continue to show that he is one of the better quarterbacks in the conference.

On the other side of the ball, the Texas defensive front is going to give TCU problems. The Longhorns are going to try to take away the run. That will make Max Duggan’s, who is only completing 60% of his passes, job that much harder.


6 OKLAHOMA AT KANSAS STATE

Betting Lines: OU -11.5 | O/U 52.5
Twitter Pick: KSU +10.5 (56.1%)
My Pick: KSU +11.5

We get it, Coach Klieman and his Wildcats are 2-0 against the Sooners. It’s impressive, but no one really expects that to last. Lincoln Riley if favored to break the streak this week, but the question is, does he do it by more than 11 points?

We’re still waiting for the Oklahoma team that was hyped before the season to show up. Technically, they are 4-0, and that’s all that truly matters. However, ignoring their 1-3 performance against the spread would be like Spencer Rattler ignoring the chants from the stands for the backup quarterback.

Those chants should be quieter this week, but that’s mostly because the game is in Manhattan. And if Skylar Thompson takes the field, he will have the full support of the stadium.


TEXAS TECH AT WEST VIRGINIA

Betting Lines: WVU -7 | O/U 55.5
Twitter Pick: WVU -7 (85.8%)
My Pick: WVU -7

Can a battered Texas Tech team pick themselves up enough to go halfway across the country to give the Mountaineers a fight? West Virginia leads the series at 6-4, but they are looking revenge for last year’s 34-27 loss.

The bright spot last week for the Red Raiders, if there was one, was that Henry Colombi came in and sparked the offense. He put up 324 yards and three touchdowns in pretty much one half of football. However, those numbers were only possible because the defense wasn’t doing much to slow the Longhorns down.

Texas Tech’s “improved” defense is giving up over 300 passing yards and 33.5 points a game. Only Kansas gives up more points in the Big 12. If Jarret Doege can take care of the ball, this should be one of his better performances of the season.

For Texas Tech, they have to get better up front. Their first half offensive struggles were largely because they kept getting pushed around. The WVU front seven is very good.

I’ll take the team that is 2-0 against the spread at home.


21 BAYLOR AT 19 OKLAHOMA STATE

Betting Lines: OKST -4 | O/U 47
Twitter Pick: OKST -3.5 (54.0%)
My Pick: BAY +3.5

The only thing I am fairly sure of in this one is that is should be closer than last year’s 42-3 game. Baylor is looking for revenge for an embarrassing home loss, and both are coming off their biggest win of the season so far.

The knock on Baylor is that they haven’t played anyone. Well, they just played the best defense in the country, and they were barely slowed down in their win. The knock on Oklahoma State is that while they are winning, they have looked terrible while doing it. That changed last week with a decisive win over Kansas State.

The question is, what happens this week? Twitter likes narrowly the Cowboys. Efficiency ratings give OSU a slight edge. But I’m going with Baylor.

The Bears have been more consistent, and the Pokes have this habit as of the last 2-3 seasons of having a game like last week, where they show you what they are capable of, but then it falls apart again. I don’t trust that we get the same OSU team from last week.

That’s not to say they can’t. I would probably stay away from this game, but being forced to pick…I like what QB Gerry Bohanon has been doing and the Bear’s 3-1 performance against the number.


KANSAS AT IOWA STATE

Betting Lines: ISU -34.5 | O/U 56.5
Twitter Pick: ISU -34 (53.9%)
My Pick: Over 56.5

Speaking of games that are hard to pick, that is a big number. I want to take Iowa State here. Kansas has yet to cover a spread. Breece Hall could go off in this one as Kansas is giving up over 240 rush yards a game. The Jayhawks should be smothered by a defense giving up just 69 rush yards a game.

But…that number. If Kansas scores at all, it makes a Cyclone cover that much harder. I’m going to do something I almost never do, and that’s take the over.


NON-BIG 12 PICK
UL MONROE AT 25 COASTAL CAROLINA

Betting Lines: CC -34.5 | O/U 57.5
My Pick: CC -34.5

Choo Choo. You all know the deal by now. I’m on the Coastal train.


UNDERDOG PICK
7 CINCINNATI AT 9 Notre Dame

Betting Lines: CIN -2 | O/U 50
My Pick: Notre Dame

When making this pick, I look for narrow home dogs that have an edge in efficiency ratings. Unfortunately for our new Cincinnati Big 12 bros, this game fits that criteria.