How will Texas respond? Is Oklahoma State as good as their ranking? Is Caleb Williams QB1 in Norman (absolutely yes), Will Iowa State show up this season?… It’s going to be a good week of football in the Big 12.
So how this works is Phillip Slavin, Daniel Alexander and myself make our picks each week on the Ten12 Podcast. My picks are below, but for Daniel’s picks, who is a professional picker, and Phillip’s picks, who is definitely not a professional, you’re going to have to listen to the podcast.
We make our pick for each Big 12 matchup and then we make two bonus picks. The first bonus pick is that we can pick on any game we want outside of the Big 12. The second bonus pick, is making a pick on the money line. Basically, picking an underdog that will win straight up. It’s a lot of fun, so give the episode a listen, and my picks are below.
Last week was my first losing week at 2-3. I blame Oklahoma not settling for the field goal for that. I’m still up on the season though, at 25-21. Twitter also had a rough week at 1-2, but is an impressive 14-7-1 on the season.
Picks are representative of where the line was at the time of posting the polls to Twitter (Monday morning), and at the time of recording the weekly Ten12 Podcast picks episode (Wednesday night).
12 OKLAHOMA STATE AT 25 TEXAS
Betting Lines: TEX -4.5 | O/U 60
Twitter Pick: OKST +5 (71.4%)
My Pick: TEX -4.5
After a total collapse in the second half, the Longhorns are coming off a brutal loss in the Red River Showdown. There is no rest for the weary though, as 12th-ranked Oklahoma State comes to Austin.
If Texas can rally, then I like them to get the win. They should have won last week. Oklahoma was lucky the damage wasn’t worse in the first half, and poor clock management let the Sooners come all the way back. I don’t see Texas making those mistakes two weeks in a row.
The Cowboy defense is legit, but the offense hasn’t been nearly as impressive. Spencer Sanders is going to have his hands full with the Texas defensive front.
This is going to come down to whichever offense can find a way to get points, and I like Casey Thompson and Bijan Robinson to get that done. The efficiency ratings like Texas by a touchdown, and I like them to cover the 4.5 here.
19 BYU AT BAYLOR
Betting Lines: BAY -6.5 | O/U 50.5
Twitter Pick: BAY -5 (52.1%)
My Pick: BYU +6.5
Baylor found their offense again, but this is BYU’s chance to make a statement against a future conference opponent. The Cougars like being in this spot. They were underdogs against all three of their Pac-12 opponents to open the season, and BYU now owns the Pac-12 South.
BYU is coming off the loss to Boise State, but don’t read too much into that. It was a very uncharacteristic game for them with four turnovers, and I expect them to have that cleaned up this week.
This one is going to be closer than the number. I like BYU to get the cover, if not the win.
TEXAS TECH AT KANSAS
Betting Lines: TTU -16.5 | O/U 68
Twitter Pick: TTU -16.5 (58.5%)
My Pick: Over 66.5
I don’t know what to make of Texas Tech. I’m not sure their fans do, either. On one hand, they should get the win today and cover their preseason projected win total. On the other hand, where is the defense we heard so much about before the season?
For Kansas, this is a chance to get some offense going. Jason Bean is a dynamic quarterback, but he has turned it over the last couple of games. If the Jayhawks want any chance in this game, he can’t make those mistakes.
Texas Tech gets the win, but I don’t know if they get the cover. At the same time, I cannot pick a team to cover when they haven’t beat the number all year. I do like there to be some points in this one as the Jayhawks celebrate homecoming. Give me the over.
TCU AT 4 OKLAHOMA
Betting Lines: OU -13.5 | O/U 65
Twitter Pick: OU -11.5 (58.2%)
My Pick: OU -13.5
It hasn’t been pretty, but the Sooners have managed to get through the first part of the season unscathed, and now they’ve turned the corner. I’ve never seen a team respond to a QB change the way the Sooners did when Caleb Williams came into the game. Actually, now that I think about it, I have. It was when Alex Cate was benched at halftime in favor of Brandon Weeden against Colorado. Just like the Sooners last week, the Cowboys got the win against Buffs, and Alex Cate never started again. There is no QB controversy in Norman. This is Caleb Williams’ team.
A healthy TCU team is not ready for this Oklahoma team, let alone one as banged up as the Horned Frogs are. Max Duggan, Zach Evans and Quentin Johnston are questionable on offense, and the defense has been far short of a typical Gary Patterson defense.
I like the line here at under two touchdowns, as this could get ugly.
IOWA STATE AT KANSAS STATE
Betting Lines: ISU -6.5 | O/U 50.5
Twitter Pick: ISU -6.5 (65.5%)
My Pick: KSU +6.5
This has not been the season Iowa State hoped for, and now, Matt Campbell is faced with his toughest coaching challenge in Ames to date. How will the Cyclones respond to having almost all of their preseason expectations dashed? We’re going to find out.
The Cyclones are coming off a tune up game against Kansas before their bye week last week. But how good are they? Their best win might be the Kansas game, as they have lost to the only decent competition on their schedule so far.
Kansas State is also coming off a bye after the Oklahoma loss. The Wildcats have been impressive against the rush as they are only allowing 86.4 yards per game on the ground. However, they have struggled establishing their own rush attack, which is the Wildcat’s bread and butter.
Hopefully, we learn a little more about these teams, but since it’s in Manhattan, I’m going to take Kansas State to get the cover.
NON-BIG 12 PICK
UCF AT 3 CINCINNATI
Betting Lines: CIN -21 | O/U 57.5
My Pick: UCF +21.5
Of course I was drawn to the future Big 12 matchup, but it has caused me to do something I don’t typically do. Cincinnati is 4-1 against the spread while UCF is 1-4, and I’m taking UCF. Efficiency rating like Cincinnati by 13.5, so let’s see how it plays out.
FRESNO STATE AT WYOMING
Betting Lines: FRES -3.5 | O/U 53.5
My Pick: WYO +3.5
As I’ve mentioned before, I like to find closer games where the underdog is the home team and performs well against the spread. Well, Wyoming is just 1-3-1 against the spread. However, I went them anyway, because when you look at the efficiency numbers, they are about a 3.5-point favorite.